What's Happening
Authorities in Sri Lanka are preparing to face the El Niño phenomenon, which is predicted to occur in the coming months. However, Rathnayaka Mudiyanselage Suwandarathne, a second-generation farmer from Thalangama in the Colombo district, believes the country may not be affected as predicted.
According to Suwandarathne, it is normal to experience a dry period between July and September, as predicted. This period coincides with the Yala season, one of the two rice harvest seasons in Sri Lanka. “In August, the dry period begins, and we need a dry season to get the harvest,” he told Mongabay. “So, we hold culturally significant events asking for rain. This is the cycle during the Yala season. Then, from December to March, there is a dry season, which coincides with the Maha season. Long dry periods occur every four to seven years. But now, we have changed these harvest cycles,” he said.
Why It Matters
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) indicates an 80% probability of a rapid development into a strong El Niño event between July and September 2026. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said this would “intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world”.
This forecast has significant implications for agriculture and food security in Sri Lanka. Drought can affect rice production, which is a staple food in the country. Additionally, heatwaves can have negative impacts on human health and ecosystems.
The Mechanism Behind El Niño
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs when the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean rises above average. This can have significant effects on the global climate, including altering rainfall and temperature patterns.
El Niño is caused by a combination of factors, including sea surface temperature, atmospheric pressure, and winds. When sea surface temperature rises, it can lead to a change in rainfall and temperature patterns, resulting in droughts or heavy rainfall in different regions of the world.
Broader Context
El Niño is not a new phenomenon and has occurred several times throughout history. However, the frequency and intensity of El Niño events have increased in recent years due to climate change.
Studies have shown that climate change can intensify the effects of El Niño, leading to more frequent and intense droughts and heavy rainfall. Additionally, climate change can also affect food production and food security worldwide.
What Happens Next
Authorities in Sri Lanka are preparing to face the effects of El Niño, including implementing measures to reduce drought and heatwaves. This includes promoting sustainable agricultural practices, such as efficient irrigation and water conservation.
Additionally, it is essential that communities are informed and prepared for the effects of El Niño. This includes disseminating information about climate forecasts and mitigation measures, as well as promoting adaptation practices to climate change.
Conclusion
El Niño is a complex climate phenomenon that can have significant effects on the global climate. The forecast of a strong El Niño event for 2026 is a reminder of the importance of preparing for climate change and promoting sustainable practices to reduce negative impacts.
It is crucial that authorities, communities, and individuals work together to prepare for the effects of El Niño and to promote resilience to climate change.
Source / Reference
Original article published on Mongabay