The Impact of Climate Shocks on Hydropower
Southern Africa, particularly Zambia and Zimbabwe, have been exemplary in harnessing hydropower as a source of energy. However, climate change has exposed the fragility of this dependence. Successive droughts, linked to the 2023-24 El Niño, caused a drastic reduction in water levels in Lake Kariba, formed by the Zambeze River dam, resulting in a significant decrease in electricity generation. This triggered one of the worst energy crises in the region in decades.
Against this backdrop, coal has resurfaced as an attractive, albeit controversial, option. According to the Global Energy Monitor's Boom and Bust Coal 2026 report, Zambia and Zimbabwe accounted for more than two-thirds of all new coal energy proposals announced in Africa in 2025. Some energy experts argue that coal offers the quickest route to stabilizing electricity supplies and sustaining industrial growth, particularly for the mining sector.
The Importance of Hydropower in the Region
The electricity systems in Zimbabwe and Zambia power mining activities, industries, and help meet the needs of growing urban populations. However, others warn that expanding coal energy risks locking both countries into decades of carbon emissions, at a time when renewable energy technologies — especially solar — are becoming increasingly accessible.
The Mechanism Behind Climate Shocks
Climate shocks, such as intense droughts caused by El Niño, directly affect the capacity for hydropower generation. The reduction in water levels in lakes and reservoirs decreases the capacity for electricity generation, leading to energy crises. Furthermore, climate change is altering precipitation patterns and increasing the frequency of extreme events, making it more challenging to manage water and energy resources.
Broader Context
This is not the first time the region has faced challenges with hydropower due to adverse climate conditions. In the past, droughts and floods have impacted energy generation, highlighting the need to diversify energy sources. Over-reliance on a single energy source, such as hydropower, makes energy systems vulnerable to climate shocks.
What Happens Next
As the region seeks solutions to stabilize its electricity supplies, it is crucial to consider the long-term implications of energy choices. Investing in renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, can offer a more sustainable route for the future, minimizing dependence on fossil fuels and reducing carbon emissions. Additionally, implementing policies and technologies to improve energy efficiency and manage electricity demand can help mitigate the impacts of climate shocks.
Consequences and Challenges
The decision to revive interest in coal as an energy source brings with it a series of challenges and consequences. Beyond the environmental impact, there are concerns about public health due to air and water pollution associated with coal mining and burning. Additionally, choosing coal may divert investments from cleaner and more sustainable energy sources, potentially delaying progress towards a low-carbon future.
Source / Reference
This article was originally published on Mongabay.