Introduction
Zambia is facing a paradoxical challenge. On one hand, the country is experiencing a record harvest of maize, which could suggest a stable food security situation. However, experts warn that this apparent stability may mask underlying vulnerabilities in the country's food system, making it susceptible to external shocks, such as those stemming from geopolitics and climate change.
Geopolitical Context and Climate Threats
The escalating conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran has raised concerns about potential disruptions to the supply of fuel and fertilizers shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, which could result in food insecurity in some African countries. While the effects of this conflict may take time to be felt in Zambia, experts point to vulnerabilities in the country's food system and suggest the need for greater resilience in the face of possible stresses.
Food Situation in Zambia
Food security in Zambia is largely dependent on a single crop: maize. According to the Zambia Statistics Agency, the price of a 25-kilogram bag of breakfast mealie meal declined slightly from April to May. In fact, the price of mealie meal is 15% lower than it was this time last year.
Perspectives and Challenges
The FAO's April 2026 country briefing for Zambia indicated that good rains since last October point to a second consecutive year of above-average harvests of maize. The rains are also expected to support a rebound of wheat harvest, as full reservoirs mean a steady supply of hydroelectric power that will allow the crop's growers (primarily large-scale, industrial farmers) to irrigate their fields.
Conclusion
Zambia faces a complex scenario, where a record harvest may hide food insecurity challenges. It is crucial that the country strengthens its resilience in the face of external and internal threats, diversifying its agricultural production and improving the management of its natural resources to ensure the food security of its population.
Source / Reference: Mongabay