What's happening with El Niño?
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has updated its forecasts for El Niño, indicating that the phenomenon is expected to gain strength from August. Projections indicate that anomalies in the average sea surface temperature are expected to exceed 2.9°C in key monitoring regions, with effects on surface temperature around the world.
Additionally, the WMO predicts a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, a climate pattern in the western part of that ocean, where the region becomes warmer on average, while the eastern part of the ocean becomes cooler than average. These oceanic factors can amplify regional climate impacts, including droughts, floods, and risks of wildfires.
Why does this matter?
The intensification of El Niño adds more fuel to a “planet already on fire”, plagued by heatwaves, wildfires, and storms. The UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, highlights that the expansion of fossil fuels needs to stop to protect people and combat the main cause of the crisis.
The combination of climate change and El Niño is already being felt, as record high temperatures in Europe demonstrate. Heat is expected to be the hallmark of this El Niño, with projections indicating an “overwhelming” probability of above-average temperatures in most land areas.
The scientific mechanism behind El Niño
El Niño is a natural phenomenon that occurs when the surface temperature of the equatorial Pacific Ocean rises above average. This can have significant impacts on the global climate, including changes in precipitation and temperature patterns.
The Indian Ocean Dipole is another climate phenomenon that can interact with El Niño, amplifying its impacts. Understanding these scientific mechanisms is crucial for predicting and preparing for the effects of El Niño.
Broader context
El Niño is not an isolated phenomenon, but rather part of a larger climate system. Climate change is altering the frequency and intensity of these events, making them more difficult to predict and manage.
Recent history of El Niño shows that the impacts can be significant, including droughts, floods, and wildfires. Preparation and adaptation are fundamental to mitigating these impacts and protecting vulnerable communities.
What happens next?
The next few months will be crucial for understanding the impacts of El Niño. The WMO will continue to monitor the situation and update forecasts. It is essential that governments, businesses, and communities are prepared for the potential impacts, including water resource management, food security, and public health.
In Brazil, the potential impacts of the “Super El Niño” are already keeping specialists and public and private managers awake at night. The expectation of another strong drought in the Amazon can impact logistical flow through the region's rivers, while drier conditions in the North, Midwest, and Southeast can affect hydroelectric generation, forcing the activation of thermal power plants and increasing tariffs.
Source / Reference
Original URL: https://climainfo.org.br/2026/08/02/organizacao-meteorologica-mundial-preve-intensificacao-de-el-nino-a-partir-de-agosto/
Source Name: ClimaInfo