What's Happening - The 'Super El Niño' and Its Effects
The arrival of a 'Super El Niño' could widen the deficit in the public accounts of African countries, according to the African Development Bank's (AfDB) chief climate specialist. The warning is that the continent is not in a position to bear the impacts of extreme weather events with potential disruptive effects on regional economies.
Anthony Nyong, director of climate change and green growth at the AfDB, told Reuters that El Niño will reduce the GDP of the most affected countries by between 1% and 2% on average, which represents between $10 billion and $20 billion across the continent.
Why It Matters - The Consequences for Africa and the World
The estimate does not detail the potential impact by country, but Nyong emphasized that it is unlikely to be an isolated impact, given the expected intensity of El Niño and the potential damage. In addition to threats to food and water security, the phenomenon can also affect public finances and banking systems if disasters damage infrastructure.
AfDB representatives reinforced that, without external support, African governments may become even more pressured by fiscal problems and external debt. “When these shocks happen, countries take two steps back. We don't want our countries to plunge back into poverty,” said Nyong.
The Science Behind 'Super El Niño' - Understanding the Phenomenon
The occurrence of El Niño results in drier conditions in an equatorial strip that crosses Africa below the Sahara and in the south of the continent. In the Horn of Africa, conditions are wetter, with the occurrence of strong storms. In the most recent El Niño, between 2023 and 2024, these extreme events caused widespread crop losses, sharp increases in food prices, and a record rise in sea levels along the coast.
El Niño is a natural phenomenon that occurs when the surface temperature of the equatorial Pacific Ocean increases, affecting the climate worldwide. It can have significant impacts on economies, especially in regions that heavily depend on agriculture and fishing.
Bigger Picture - How This Compares to Past Events and Trends
The impacts of El Niño are not limited to Africa. Reuters also highlighted the potential effects in emerging markets around the world, which are already dealing with the repercussions of the war in the Persian Gulf on domestic inflation and the cost of living.
In Asia, India is preparing for a weaker-than-normal monsoon season, with expectations of lower rainfall in over a decade. In countries like Indonesia, the Philippines, and Pakistan, the challenge is macroeconomic: with potential losses in agriculture and the prospect of new increases in food prices, interest rates are expected to rise in these markets to preserve the value of national currencies.
What Happens Next - Implications and Challenges for the Future
In Latin America, the most concerning scenario is in Colombia and Peru, countries at the epicenter of El Niño. In the case of Colombia, the country's dependence on hydroelectric generation could be a weakness in a scenario of below-expected rainfall, with the possibility of higher energy prices. In Peru, in addition to the impact of higher food prices, the fiscal situation also intensifies analysts' concerns.
The combination of El Niño with the wars in Ukraine and Iran is expected to pressure almost all economies globally. As DW noted, this combination of shocks, the increase in fertilizer prices caused by the wars and the impacts of El Niño on crops, could be the “straw that breaks the camel's back” for a crisis in food production and supply, especially in the poorest and most vulnerable markets.
Conclusions and Challenges for the Future
In the face of this scenario, it is essential that governments and international organizations work together to mitigate the impacts of El Niño and support the most affected countries. This includes investing in resilient infrastructure, developing early warning systems, and strengthening food and water security.
Moreover, it is crucial to address the underlying causes of El Niño, such as climate change, and work to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote sustainable development.
Source / Reference
Original URL: https://climainfo.org.br/2026/07/30/super-el-nino-pode-causar-prejuizo-de-ate-us-20-bi-na-africa/
Source Name: ClimaInfo