Introduction to the El Niño Debate
We are in 2026 and the debate about the "Super" El Niño is on the rise. However, can we attribute all extreme climate events to this phenomenon? Let's do a memory exercise: in April 2024, the state of Rio Grande do Sul was hit by floods that resulted in more than 170 deaths. At the time, El Niño was pointed out as the main culprit. But is it fair to blame everything on this phenomenon?
Study of the Causes behind the Floods in Rio Grande do Sul
A study published by thirteen scientists, including two Brazilians, sought to understand what was behind the extreme event in Rio Grande do Sul. The main conclusions showed that climate change made the event twice as likely and 6% to 9% more intense. Additionally, El Niño doubled the probability of the event and made the rains between 3% and 10% more intense.
The Science behind El Niño and Climate Change
Climate science is complex and involves the interaction of several factors. El Niño is a natural phenomenon that occurs when the surface waters of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean warm up above average. However, climate change is altering the behavior of El Niño, making it more frequent and intense.
Teleconnections: The Link between El Niño and Extreme Climate Events
Teleconnections are patterns of wind, pressure, and ocean currents that carry the effect of a regional change to distant places. This web of connections involves the Earth and can transform a regional change into an extreme climate event in another part of the planet.
The Impact of Climate Change on Natural Phenomena
Recent studies indicate that climate change is actively influencing natural phenomena such as El Niño, altering its behavior, duration, and geographical extent. Additionally, climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events.
Resistance to Climate Science
However, at the same time that the world is experiencing a growing number of extreme climate events, resistance to climate science is also growing. Some countries are questioning the validity of climate science and the goal of 1.5°C of the Paris Agreement.
Consequences of El Niño for Brazil
The El Niño that is forming can bring real consequences for Brazil. However, it is essential to remember that climate science does not work with a single cause, but rather with an entire system, interconnected and full of pieces that push each other at the same time.
Conclusion: The Importance of Understanding Climate Complexity
Giving up on the complexity of climate science, especially in the political debate, can lead to decisions that expose territories and their populations to even greater vulnerability in the face of the effects of an unbalanced planet. It is fundamental to understand that El Niño is just one of the many factors that contribute to extreme climate events.
Source / Reference
Original URL: https://climainfo.org.br/2026/07/30/nem-tudo-e-culpa-do-super-el-nino/