What Happened
In June 2026, an unprecedented heatwave swept through Europe, with France being one of the first and most affected countries. According to a new analysis, the extreme conditions caused over 2,700 heat-related deaths in France. Additionally, the results show that the extreme temperatures in France in June surpassed the projections of climate models.
The average daily high temperatures in France reached 36.9°C, surpassing the previous June record of 2022 by 2.4°C. This illustrates the trend that heatwaves in Europe are surpassing the projections of climate models.
Why It Matters
The consequences of these extreme temperatures are lethal. Scientists can estimate the number of heat-related deaths in many locations, depending on the availability of mortality and climate data. There are several ways to do this, including examining death certificates and comparing the total mortality rate over a specific time period with previous periods.
Using these approaches, France's Public Health attributed approximately 2,000 deaths in France to extreme heat during the week of June 22-28. Additionally, research published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in 2025 found that mortality rates in France increase rapidly in hot or cold conditions as daily high temperatures deviate from around 20°C.
The Mechanism/Science Behind It
The science behind heatwaves is complex and involves several factors, including the reduction of aerosols that cool the planet, changes in atmospheric circulation patterns, and the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. Climate models project that heatwaves will become more frequent and intense as the planet warms.
The figure below illustrates how the average daily high temperatures in France in June 2026 (black line) compare to the projections of climate models (blue and orange lines). This shows that the temperatures observed in France are surpassing the projections of climate models.
Bigger Picture
Heatwaves are not a new phenomenon, but the frequency and intensity with which they occur are increasing due to climate change. Europe has seen extreme heatwaves that surpass the projections of climate models for several decades. Additionally, research shows that heatwaves have a disproportionate impact on the most vulnerable groups, such as the elderly and people with pre-existing health conditions.
The analysis of June 2026 suggests that, even if the most severe emission scenarios are no longer necessary, climate impacts are having a heavy effect on society. Furthermore, the temperatures observed in France show that climate models continue to underestimate the magnitude of heatwaves for a given level of global warming.
What Happens Next
Heatwaves are a significant challenge for public health and healthcare systems. Adapting to heatwaves is crucial to reducing the number of heat-related deaths. This includes measures such as installing air conditioning, heat action plans, and social support for isolated individuals.
However, adaptation cannot eliminate the risk created by continued warming. Without a shift away from fossil fuels, future heatwaves will continue to test the limits of public health systems and more people will die.
Source / Reference
Original URL: https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-frances-june-heatwave-caused-more-than-2700-heat-related-deaths
Source: Carbon Brief