What Happened
The Soy Moratorium, a successful initiative that brought together the private sector, civil society, and government to contain the expansion of soybean cultivation over native vegetation in the Amazon, is coming to an end. After nearly 20 years in effect, the agreement's erosion over the past few months brings back the specter of deforestation tied to agricultural commodities.
A study published in the journal Science reveals that the end of the Soy Moratorium could increase deforestation in the Amazon over the next decade. According to the research, approximately 1.4 million hectares – almost 10 cities the size of São Paulo – could be deforested, equivalent to 17% of the deforestation of the last ten years.
Why It Matters
The impact of this in terms of emissions is significant: around 745 million tons of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e), comparable to Canada's annual emissions. Moreover, the loss of biodiversity and degradation of Amazonian ecosystems will have irreversible consequences for the planet.
The analysis was conducted by researchers from the Universities of Wisconsin, DePaul, and Illinois (USA), as well as Greenpeace Brazil and WWF-Brazil. In addition to reinforcing the importance of the Moratorium for containing Amazonian deforestation over the last 20 years, the study also highlights the risk of regression in a scenario of discontinuity of the initiative.
The Mechanism Behind Deforestation
According to the research, 9.1 million hectares of vegetation on private lands, equivalent to Portugal, could be legally deforested for cultivation without the Soy Moratorium. Another 28.7 million hectares in non-designated public forests, an area comparable to Italy, will also be vulnerable.
“The effect of the end of the Moratorium will not be mostly on properties that already produce soy, it will be on the others, because it has opened the perspective for expansion into areas that never had soy before,” explains Lisa Rausch, from the University of Wisconsin, co-author of the study.
Broader Context
Study data indicate that, in its first ten years of validity, the Moratorium allowed for a 35% reduction in deforestation in areas at risk for soy expansion. The avoided forest loss is estimated at 1.8 million hectares.
“The Soy Moratorium showed that it is possible to expand agricultural production while maintaining conservation criteria,” observes Tiago Reis, from WWF-Brazil, another co-author of the research.
What's Next
The validation of state laws by the STF will have an impact on how much companies will be encouraged to take on more ambitious commitments regarding the Forest Code, which could also affect other production chains, notes Cristiane Mazzetti, coordinator of forests at Greenpeace Brazil and also a co-author of the study.
It is fundamental that there is awareness about the importance of preserving the Amazon and that concrete measures are taken to avoid deforestation and environmental degradation.
Consequences and Challenges
Beyond environmental impacts, the end of the Soy Moratorium will also have economic and social consequences. The loss of biodiversity and degradation of Amazonian ecosystems will affect agricultural production and food security, in addition to affecting indigenous and traditional communities that depend on the forest for their survival.
It is necessary that there is a joint effort between governments, companies, and civil society to find sustainable and equitable solutions for the development of the Amazon region.
Source / Reference
Original URL: https://climainfo.org.br/2026/07/19/fim-da-moratoria-da-soja-pode-aumentar-em-17-desmatamento-na-amazonia/
Source Name: ClimaInfo