What Happened: Conflicts in the Middle East and the Oil Market
Oil prices have experienced significant volatility since the weekend, driven by the return of US attacks on Iran. After a brief decline to near $70 at the end of June, due to a memorandum of understanding between the two countries for a possible end to the conflict, the Brent barrel returned to exceed $80. With new threats from US President Donald Trump, the price approached $90 on Tuesday (14/7), but retreated after another retreat by the president.
Trump ordered new attacks on Iranian territory and announced that the US would charge a 20% "toll" on products transported through the Strait of Hormuz, which caused a stir in the international oil market. However, the "orange agent" gave up on the "toll" and, in exchange, replaced the charge with "trade and investment agreements that the various Gulf countries will make in the United States".
Why It Matters: Global and Regional Impacts
The conflict between the US and Iran has significant implications for the global oil market and the world economy. The Middle East region is crucial for oil production and export, and any disruption in this region can lead to increases in oil prices, affecting inflation, economic growth, and energy security of many countries.
In addition, the conflict also has political and strategic implications, as it involves not only the US and Iran but also other countries in the region and global powers. The situation is complex and multifaceted, with different actors and interests at play, making it difficult to predict how events will unfold.
Mechanism and Science Behind the Conflict: Geopolitics and Oil Economics
Oil geopolitics is a crucial factor in understanding the conflict between the US and Iran. Oil is a strategic commodity, essential for the global economy, and control over oil production and export is a key element in international politics.
The Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula, is one of the main oil transportation routes in the world, with about 20% of the world's oil production passing through this region. Any blockade or disruption in this region can have significant impacts on oil prices and the global economy.
Bigger Picture: Past Trends and Events
The conflict between the US and Iran is not an isolated event, but rather part of a series of tensions and conflicts in the Middle East region. The region has a long history of conflicts, from the Iraq War in 2003 to the current conflicts in Syria, Yemen, and Libya.
In addition, the oil market has also been affected by other trends and events, such as changes in energy consumption patterns, increased oil production in the US, and the implementation of climate change policies. These factors contribute to the complexity and uncertainty of the oil market.
What's Next: Implications and Open Questions
The conflict between the US and Iran is an ongoing event, and it is difficult to predict how events will unfold. However, it is clear that the situation has significant implications for the oil market, the global economy, and regional security.
Some of the open questions include: how will the US and Iran handle the conflict? What will be the impact on oil prices and the global economy? How will other countries and international organizations respond to the situation?
Final Conclusions: Challenges and Opportunities
The conflict between the US and Iran is a reminder of the challenges and complexities of oil geopolitics. The situation is multifaceted, with different actors and interests at play, and it is difficult to predict how events will unfold.
However, it is also an opportunity to reflect on the importance of international cooperation, diplomacy, and the pursuit of peaceful solutions to conflicts. Additionally, the situation also highlights the need to diversify energy sources and invest in cleaner and more sustainable technologies.
Source / Reference
This article is based on publicly available information, including news and reports from sources such as CNN Brazil, Valor, UOL, Estadão, and ClimaInfo.
For more information, visit: https://climainfo.org.br/2026/07/15/petroleo-volta-a-disparar-com-ataque-dos-eua-ao-ira-e-mais-ameacas-de-trump/