What's Happening: The Super El Niño Phenomenon
When talking about El Niño, the most common image is that of droughts, floods, and heatwaves. However, the phenomenon begins long before its effects are felt on land: it is born in the ocean. And, if the predictions of a possible 'Super El Niño' are confirmed, scientists warn that the first impacts could reach the marine ecosystems, compromising everything from fishing to the natural protection of coastal areas.
Experts from the World Resources Institute (WRI) state that the strengthening of the phenomenon can cause profound changes in the dynamics of the oceans at a time when they are already facing record temperatures due to climate change. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is an 81% probability that El Niño will reach the 'very strong' category between October and December this year, which could make it one of the most intense since the beginning of records in 1950.
Why it Matters: The Real Stakes and Who is Affected
El Niño begins in the ocean, but its impacts quickly spread through marine ecosystems, the livelihoods of coastal communities, and the entire economy linked to the sea. The WRI also warns that a Super El Niño could intensify so-called marine heatwaves, periods when the surface temperature of the ocean remains well above average for days or weeks.
These events become especially concerning because they occur over an ocean that is already warmer due to global warming. Elevated temperatures can degrade marine meadows and algae forests, increase stress and disease incidence in aquaculture systems, and alter the distribution of plankton, the base of the marine food chain.
The Science Behind the Phenomenon: The Mechanism of El Niño
El Niño is a natural phenomenon that occurs every two to seven years, characterized by an abnormal warming of the equatorial Pacific waters. This warming can have significant impacts on global climate patterns, including the intensification of droughts and floods in different parts of the world.
One of the main effects of El Niño occurs over a process known as upwelling, responsible for bringing cold and nutrient-rich waters from the deeper layers to the ocean's surface. During intense El Niño episodes, this mechanism weakens, reducing the availability of food for various marine species and affecting some of the most productive fisheries in the planet.
Bigger Picture: How This Compares to Past Events
Coral reefs are among the most vulnerable ecosystems to the impacts of El Niño. Previous episodes of very strong El Niño, such as those recorded in 1997-1998 and 2015-2016, were associated with large global coral bleaching events, compromising habitats that sustain marine biodiversity, fishing, tourism, and even the natural protection of the coastline against storms and erosion.
Moreover, the current context is different due to global warming. The last 11 years have been the warmest on record, which can amplify the impacts of El Niño. Global food systems already face pressures from geopolitical conflicts, increased energy and fertilizer costs, and extreme climate events, making the effects on oceans, fishing, and food production more persistent and severe than in previous episodes.
What Happens Next: Implications and Adaptation Measures
According to the WRI, the advantage is that El Niño can be predicted months in advance, allowing governments and communities to adopt measures to reduce the impacts. Among the recommendations are strengthening ocean monitoring systems, investing in sustainable fishing management, expanding the protection of coastal ecosystems, and developing adaptation plans for communities dependent on marine resources.
Researchers also highlight that reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains the primary long-term measure to prevent natural phenomena like El Niño from producing increasingly intense impacts on the oceans and on the populations that depend on them.