Introduction
The price of oil surged after a new exchange of attacks between the US and Iran, breaking the truce that had elevated oil supply in recent weeks and reduced fuel prices. The Brent barrel, an international reference, closed the day at $78.02, with a 5.2% increase, while the WTI barrel, a US reference, rose 4.4%, closing at $73.52.
Context of the Conflict
The conflict between the US and Iran has its roots in a series of political and economic tensions. Recently, US President Trump declared that the fragile ceasefire between the countries may have come to an end, after Iran hit three oil tankers that crossed the Strait of Hormuz. In response, the US carried out new bombings to reduce Iran's ability to threaten navigation freedom in the strait.
Impact on the Oil Market
The conflict in the Middle East has a significant impact on the oil market. Before the joint attacks by the US and Israel on Iranian territory, a fifth of the world's oil supply passed through Hormuz. Since then, Iran has maintained strict control over ship traffic in the area, forcing other Middle Eastern oil producers to reduce production by millions of barrels due to the impossibility of exporting at the same rate as before.
Forecasts and Analysis
With tensions returning, the question now is how far the price of oil can rise. At the height of the conflict, the Brent barrel reached nearly $120, closely followed by WTI. Edgar Araújo, CEO of Azumi Investimentos, believes that Brent could seek the $80 to $90 range if tension in the Middle East threatens global supply or flow through Hormuz.
Conclusion
The conflict between the US and Iran has significant implications for the oil market and the global economy. It is essential to follow the developments of the conflict and its implications for the oil market, as well as consider the perspectives of experts and analysts to better understand market trends and forecasts.
Source / Reference
Source: ClimaInfo