Introduction
According to data released by the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, global emissions of greenhouse gases from forest fires in the first half of 2026 reached their lowest level since the start of the historical series in 2003, totaling less than 400 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e).
Context and Causes
The information was compiled by the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS), based on satellite observations of active fires. According to Copernicus, the decline in global emissions was driven by a reduction in seasonal fire levels in tropical Africa.
Most Affected Regions
Africa and Asia are the continents that most contributed to the reduction in carbon emissions from forest fires between January and June, with 154 MtCO2e and 113 MtCO2e, respectively. In the same period last year, forest fire emissions totaled 213 MtCO2e in Africa and 164 MtCO2e in Asia. South America also recorded a decline, from 40.9 MtCO2e in the first half of 2025 to 38.8 MtCO2e in the first six months of 2026.
Other Fire Areas
The most intense fire activity in the past semester occurred in the Australian state of Victoria at the beginning of the year. Fires were also recorded in the South American Patagonia, in the Biobío (Chile) and Chubut (Argentina) regions. These flames became three times more likely due to climate change, according to a study by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) network of climate scientists.
Forecasts and Concerns
Despite the positive data, the outlook for the rest of the year is concerning. In North America, heatwaves that covered much of the continent have already caused an increase in forest fire emissions in the second half of June. According to Copernicus, the largest fires on the subcontinent so far have been observed in Canada, in the province of Manitoba and the Northwest Territories.
Conclusion and References
Another concern is the chance of a “Super El Niño” in the coming months, which could intensify drought in forest regions around the world. The forecast conditions for El Niño have the potential to increase global emissions from fires, as observed during previous years of the climate phenomenon, in 2015 and 2019.
Source / Reference: ClimaInfo