What is the 'Super El Niño' and why is it important?
The 'Super El Niño' is an extreme climatic phenomenon characterized by a temperature anomaly in the Equatorial Pacific, which can have significant implications for the global climate. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States, El Niño is already classified as 'strong', with a temperature anomaly of +1.8°C in the Niño 3.4 region, off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador.
The NOAA updated its forecast for the phenomenon, indicating that there is more than a 90% chance of a 'very strong' event during the spring and summer of 2026-27 in the Southern Hemisphere. This means that the 'Super El Niño' could reach an intensity never seen in 76 years of records, according to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the NOAA.
Why is the 'Super El Niño' important?
The 'Super El Niño' does not necessarily mean that there will be more severe consequences, but it increases the chances that the most characteristic impacts of the phenomenon will occur, such as more intense storms, droughts, or heatwaves, depending on the region of the planet.
The planet is already experiencing more frequent and intense extreme events due to climate change, caused mainly by the burning of fossil fuels. The 'Super El Niño' tends to worsen these occurrences, functioning as a kind of 'icing on the cake' of the climate crisis.
The scientific mechanism behind the 'Super El Niño'
The 'Super El Niño' is caused by a combination of factors, including the temperature anomaly in the Equatorial Pacific and the alteration of atmospheric circulation patterns. This can lead to a series of consequences, including changes in rainfall and temperature patterns in different regions of the planet.
The science behind the 'Super El Niño' is complex and involves the interaction of several factors, including the atmosphere, oceans, and land. However, it is clear that the 'Super El Niño' is a natural phenomenon that can have significant implications for the global climate.
Broad context: how the 'Super El Niño' compares to other climate events
The 'Super El Niño' is not an isolated event, but rather part of a broader pattern of global climate change. According to the NOAA, the 'Super El Niño' could be the strongest on record, surpassing the 1997 event.
Additionally, the 'Super El Niño' could have significant implications for agriculture, food security, and the economy in different regions of the planet. For example, in India, rainfall was 12% below average until August, which could affect agricultural production.
What happens next: implications and consequences
With the forecast of a 'Super El Niño', it is essential that governments, organizations, and communities be prepared for the possible consequences. This includes implementing adaptation and mitigation measures, such as water resource management, infrastructure protection, and assistance to affected communities.
Additionally, it is crucial that research and continuous monitoring be conducted to better understand the 'Super El Niño' and its impacts. This can help develop more effective strategies for dealing with the consequences of the phenomenon.
Consequences for Brazil and other regions
In Brazil, the expectation of a very strong phenomenon is already affecting projections for some crops. The monthly crop survey by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) pointed to a decline in national wheat production in 2026, in a revision caused by farmers' concerns about the more adverse climate with El Niño.
Additionally, other regions, such as Guatemala and Kenya, are already suffering from droughts and water deficits. It is essential that measures be taken to help these regions prepare for and deal with the consequences of the 'Super El Niño'.
Source / Reference
Original URL: https://climainfo.org.br/2026/08/13/chance-de-super-el-nino-sobe-para-mais-de-90-aponta-a-noaa/
Source Name: ClimaInfo