What's happening: El Niño reaches strong category
We are already under the effect of a strong El Niño, according to data released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States. But the phenomenon is expected to gain even more strength in the coming months, with the possibility of recording one of the most intense El Niños since 1950.
The main indicator to verify the occurrence of El Niño is the temperature of the sea surface in the central and eastern part of the Equatorial Pacific, off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador — the Niño 3.4 region. The average anomaly must be at least 0.5°C above the normal average and for at least five consecutive months.
Why it matters: Impacts on climate and society
The phenomenon should not be limited to 2026. The expectation is that El Niño patterns will remain in the Equatorial Pacific throughout the summer of 2026/2027, which means that we will have its reflections on the global climate at least until the beginning of autumn next year.
One of the effects of El Niño that should be more recurrent is heat waves. Data from the Unified Health System (SUS) of 14 metropolitan regions show that, between 2000 and 2020, at least 50,000 deaths can be associated with heat waves.
The science behind El Niño: Mechanisms and processes
El Niño is a natural phenomenon that occurs when the temperature of the sea surface in the Equatorial Pacific increases above average. This can have significant effects on the global climate, including changes in precipitation and temperature patterns.
The anomaly already places the current El Niño in the “strong” category, which ranges from +1.5°C to +1.9°C, and is close to the “very strong” classification (2.0°C or more) – the so-called “Super El Niño”.
Broad context: Comparison with past events and trends
El Niño is a cyclical phenomenon that occurs every 2 to 7 years. However, the frequency and intensity of El Niño have increased in recent years, which can be related to climate change.
The probability of a very strong El Niño is 81%, according to NOAA. This can have significant implications for the economy and society, especially in regions that depend heavily on agriculture and hydroelectric energy.
What's next: Implications and challenges
One of the main challenges is the demand for electricity. At the same time that high temperatures increase electricity consumption, droughts related to the phenomenon affect the level of hydroelectric reservoirs, forcing the activation of thermoelectric plants moved by fossil fuels to guarantee the energy supply.
This is already being felt. According to the Canal Solar, future energy prices rose in anticipation of a stronger El Niño. Contracts for December advanced 2.26%, from R$ 293.61 per megawatt-hour (MWh) to R$ 300.25/MWh.
Conclusion: Preparation and resilience
It is essential that authorities and society be prepared to face the challenges imposed by El Niño. This includes implementing measures to reduce energy demand, increase energy efficiency, and promote climate resilience.
Additionally, it is crucial that there is greater awareness about the impacts of El Niño and the importance of preparing for these events. International cooperation and the sharing of knowledge and technologies are also essential to mitigate the effects of El Niño.
Source / Reference
Original URL: https://climainfo.org.br/2026/08/13/el-nino-atinge-categoria-forte-e-deve-se-intensificar-nos-proximos-meses/
Source Name: ClimaInfo