The Current Scenario: Fires, Extreme Heat and Exceptional Profits
In recent weeks, fires in Spain and France have left over 300,000 people homeless. Canada reached almost 900 active fires simultaneously. June was the hottest month ever recorded in France, 3.8°C above average, in a heatwave that, according to scientists, would be virtually impossible without the burning of fossil fuels. Only in Europe, extreme heat would have killed around 20,000 people – and the count is rising.
In Brazil, the alert is the same. INMET and INPE project an El Niño that can reach the category "very strong" and has almost 100% chance of remaining active until the beginning of 2027. In the Amazon, the rivers are already starting to drop, which can hinder river transport and isolate riverside communities. The Northeast faces prolonged drought. The risk of wildfires soars from the North to the Midwest. Rio Grande do Sul returns to living with storms and floods. These are the same regions that never fully recovered from the El Niño of 2023 and 2024.
Why This Matters: The Real Stakes and Who Is Affected
It was in this scenario of extreme climate events around the world that Petrobras, like other oil companies, released an exceptional profit quarter. The result from April to June came out with Petrobras having R$ 52.4 billion in net profit, 96.8% more than in the same period of 2025. What explains the number is the record production of pre-salt combined with the surge in oil prices, driven by the war in the Middle East.
Petrobras is not alone. According to an analysis by The Guardian, the eight largest oil companies in the world totaled almost US$93 billion in profit between April and June. It's almost double the US$50 billion of the same period last year, equivalent to almost R$60,000 in profit per second.
The Science Behind: The Mechanism of El Niño and the Burning of Fossil Fuels
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs in the Pacific Ocean, but its intensity and frequency have been exacerbated by climate change caused by the burning of fossil fuels. The burning of these fuels releases greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, which retain heat in the atmosphere, leading to global warming.
Furthermore, the production and use of oil contribute significantly to air and water pollution, affecting human health and the environment. The extraction, transportation, and refining of oil can also lead to accidents and spills, with devastating consequences for the environment.
Bigger Picture: Trends and Research
The climate crisis is a global challenge that requires coordinated and immediate actions. Petrobras, as one of the largest companies in Brazil, has a crucial role to play in the transition to a more sustainable economy. However, the company's investments in low-carbon energy are negligible, representing only 1.95% of total investments in the first half.
Studies such as "The Petrobras We Need", launched by the Climate Observatory in September 2025, show that there is a financially viable path for the company. This includes defining exclusion zones in environmentally sensitive areas, abandoning new ventures in the Equatorial Margin and Pelotas Basin, and increasing investment in biofuels with environmental control and socio-environmental safeguards guaranteed.
What's Next: Implications and Open Questions
The next decision already has a date. On October 7, ANP will offer 22 sectors of exploratory blocks and 2 sectors of marginal accumulations in the 6th Permanent Concession Offer Cycle, in addition to 13 blocks in the 4th Permanent Sharing Offer Cycle. The company has just announced that it has the cash to follow another path. But the decision is not just up to the board: the Union is the controller of Petrobras.
There are about two months left. Until then, those who want to govern the country must answer a simple question. Will they look to the past and use Brazil's largest company to bet on a declining asset, or will they acknowledge that the climate crisis matters and there is a need to seek an end to its dependence?
Source / Reference
Original URL: https://climainfo.org.br/2026/08/07/o-super-el-nino-e-o-superlucro-da-petrobras/
Source Name: ClimaInfo